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JACDEC Safety Review 2013

 

JAN 2nd 2014

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Introduction and Explanations

 

In our index rating , we distinguish whether an event is a total loss or a serious incident : Both will be recorded in our JACDEC Database, but in the final weighting a total loss counts considerably more. As always we include only flights where paying passengers have been on board. Therefore we disregard all freight – ferry, training of mainetenance flights.
We believe the operational environment is a crucial factor for an airline´s safety performance.
One lesson of our now decade-long experience in aviation safety analysis is the following: There is a direct correlation between the safety of a airline and the competence and transparency of the controlling authorities.
Therefore we use for years the results of the so-called USOAP , this abbreviation stands for Universal Safety Oversight Audit Programme . In this global program, guided by all ICAO member, the whole civil aviation system is undergoing a voluntary audit. In particular it is investigated how a country is able to meet and maintain defined standards on aviation safety. [USOAP Website]
The results of this investigation will be published on a website and can be viewed by everyone.

Furthermore, we looked at the level of trancparency an governing authority has. We ask: Are there all relevant occurences laid on the table, or not ? Compared to earlier years, 2013 gave us some encouraging results, but many important players like China, Turkey or Mexico failed to open their accident investigations to a wider audience. 

While countries like the USA, the UK, Canada, France or Australia took the lead and implemented an exemplary system of reporting, investigation and publishing of any relevant safety cases regardless wether the major flag carriers are involved or not. Also Brazil , Colombia, South Africa, Germany, Indonesia, Japan, Taiwan and the Scandinavian countries have a comparably high level of transparency resulting in a positive in impact to our Index calculations. Countries that do not or only sporadically publish accident investigations , got a lower rating , such as China , Malaysia, Thailand and Turkey.

Further informations and comments by the authors about the Safety Index can be found here.

IMG_Safety-Index_small

What is the JACDEC Index all about ?

In our index rating, we distinguish whether an event is a total loss or a serious incident : Both will be recorded in our JACDEC Database, but in the final weighting a total loss counts considerably more. As always we include only flights where paying passengers have been on board. Therefore we disregard all freight – ferry, training of mainetenance flights.
We believe the operational environment is a crucial factor for an airline´s safety performance.
One lesson of our now decade-long experience in aviation safety analysis is the following: There is a direct correlation between the safety of a airline and the competence and transparency of the controlling authorities.
Therefore we use for years the results of the so-called USOAP , this abbreviation stands for Universal Safety Oversight Audit Programme . In this global program, guided by all ICAO member, the whole civil aviation system is undergoing a voluntary audit. In particular it is investigated how a country is able to meet and maintain defined standards on aviation safety. [USOAP Website]
The results of this investigation will be published on a website and can be viewed by everyone.

Furthermore, we looked at the level of trancparency an governing authority has. We ask: Are there all relevant occurences laid on the table, or not ? Compared to earlier years, 2013 gave us some encouraging results, but many important players like China, Turkey or Mexico failed to open their accident investigations to a wider audience. 

While countries like the USA, the UK, Canada, France or Australia took the lead and implemented an exemplary system of reporting, investigation and publishing of any relevant safety cases regardless wether the major flag carriers are involved or not. Also Brazil , Colombia, South Africa, Germany, Indonesia, Japan, Taiwan and the Scandinavian countries have a comparably high level of transparency resulting in a positive in impact to our Index calculations. Countries that do not or only sporadically publish accident investigations , got a lower rating , such as China , Malaysia, Thailand and Turkey. 

The JACDEC Methodology and Definitions

The index is based on JACDEC now 12 years of accident analysis and a variety of official sources and documents of recognized institutions. During this time, the index every year got more complex and meaningful.

It now has a level which allows us to compare the safety status of all the busiest airlines in the world combined.

The JACDEC Safety Index calculation is currently based on eight basic components.

 

1 Annual Revenue Passengers Kilometers( RPKs ) By using this number , we determine the flight performance of an airline. At nearly all major airlines , it is a default value. For calculating the index we use the cumulative RPK ‘s – depending on the age of the airline – 30 years back .
2 Fatalities For calculating the index we include all deaths among all occupants on board commercial passenger flights of an airline. (Time from boarding to de-boarding) For calculating the Index we use the number of victims – depending on the age of the airline – up to 30 years back.
3 No. of Total Losses The so-called ” Hull Losses” are another core component of the calculation.
Thus all accidents, by definition, refer to operations where the aircraft is destroyed, or was no longer repairable.
4 No. of Serious Incidents This ” ingredient” in our index calculation is still relatively new. Only since the „critical mass“ of air accident authorities is achieved, generating the appropriate report density to be used to calculate in the JACDEC Index. The term “serious incident” is defined by international standards and referred to incidents where an accident was only narrowly avoided.
A serious incident is weighted less than a Hull Loss .
5 Accident-Free Years The number of years without a hull loss accident, backward from the current reference year to the most recent total loss (Hull Loss ) of an airline. The more accident-free years an airline got, the better the relationship between flight performance and accident history resulting in an improvement of the JACDEC Safety Index.
6 IOSA Membership Is an airline through the IOSA audit successful and receive an unqualified certificate , this is also included in the index . IOSA stands for ” IATA Operational Safety Audit ” to determine a recognized program of the airline association IATA, to operational structures and quality management within an airline. Meanwhile over 300 airlines have received an IOSA certificate. Although an IOSA membership has little impact on our index , airlines that doesn´t have it were downgraded by a small quantum. [IOSA website]
7 The Time Factor When calculating the total accident history of an airline, we applied an time weighting factor ( the Exponential Moving Average – EMA ). This additional formula ensures that older accidents contributes to the safety index by a lesser degree than newer ones. The farther an accident is back in time, the weaker its impact.
8 Country Transparency As a new component we introduced in 2013 was the transparency of the controlling authority of Aircraft Accident Investigation . Depending on which country we established different levels of transparency. Countries in the Level 1 best in terms of publication all relevant flight safety events in that particular country, Level 2 for single or only a few publications , and Level 3 for no publications of the Aircraft Accident Investigation , or the non-existence of the relevant authority.
© JACDEC 2014